{
  "controls": [
    {
      "advertised_shop_selections": [
        0,
        0
      ],
      "advertised_shop_visits": [
        0,
        10
      ],
      "budget": 2,
      "changed_final_choices": 4,
      "changed_final_choices_without_visiting_advertised_shop": 0,
      "changed_paths": 10,
      "cohort": "mixed",
      "crowd_feedback": false,
      "label": "No popularity feedback",
      "reverse_arrival": false
    },
    {
      "advertised_shop_selections": [
        0,
        4
      ],
      "advertised_shop_visits": [
        0,
        4
      ],
      "budget": 1,
      "changed_final_choices": 8,
      "changed_final_choices_without_visiting_advertised_shop": 4,
      "changed_paths": 8,
      "cohort": "mixed",
      "crowd_feedback": true,
      "label": "One shop open",
      "reverse_arrival": false
    },
    {
      "advertised_shop_selections": [
        0,
        0
      ],
      "advertised_shop_visits": [
        1,
        11
      ],
      "budget": 3,
      "changed_final_choices": 5,
      "changed_final_choices_without_visiting_advertised_shop": 1,
      "changed_paths": 12,
      "cohort": "mixed",
      "crowd_feedback": true,
      "label": "Three shops open",
      "reverse_arrival": false
    },
    {
      "advertised_shop_selections": [
        0,
        0
      ],
      "advertised_shop_visits": [
        24,
        24
      ],
      "budget": 6,
      "changed_final_choices": 0,
      "changed_final_choices_without_visiting_advertised_shop": 0,
      "changed_paths": 13,
      "cohort": "mixed",
      "crowd_feedback": true,
      "label": "All six shops open",
      "reverse_arrival": false
    },
    {
      "advertised_shop_selections": [
        0,
        0
      ],
      "advertised_shop_visits": [
        0,
        0
      ],
      "budget": 2,
      "changed_final_choices": 0,
      "changed_final_choices_without_visiting_advertised_shop": 0,
      "changed_paths": 0,
      "cohort": "focused",
      "crowd_feedback": true,
      "label": "Homogeneous reliability roster",
      "reverse_arrival": false
    },
    {
      "advertised_shop_selections": [
        0,
        0
      ],
      "advertised_shop_visits": [
        0,
        12
      ],
      "budget": 2,
      "changed_final_choices": 20,
      "changed_final_choices_without_visiting_advertised_shop": 8,
      "changed_paths": 20,
      "cohort": "mixed",
      "crowd_feedback": true,
      "label": "Reverse shopping arrival",
      "reverse_arrival": true
    }
  ],
  "date": "2026-10-26",
  "guardrails": {
    "conclusion": "The scripted popularity-feedback/limited-browse mechanism can indirectly reroute choices among other shops without selection of the advertised shop. No generalization beyond this model.",
    "design_space_is_convenience_enumeration_not_probability_sample": true,
    "human_participants": 0,
    "matching_algorithm_and_archive_authorship": "same-author",
    "model_agents_executed": 0,
    "real_checkouts": 0,
    "real_shops": 0,
    "selection_is_extreme_posthoc_not_out_of_sample": true
  },
  "lineage": {
    "note": "No new model sessions were executed. Results are derived by exact filtering and replay of an existing public synthetic sweep.",
    "original_model_git_blob": "41b2133712dec6bbdebf5a2246b921079f3ec57f",
    "original_sweep_git_blob": "bcec812b05be7a981e4561407ee67c1775181b12",
    "parent_experiment": "GOBLIN-SHOPPING-ATTENTION-DEMO-2026-10-26-001"
  },
  "record_id": "GOBLIN-GHOST-STORE-2026-10-26-001",
  "selection": {
    "criterion": "Advertised store receives more explicit opens; its final selections remain zero in both arms; at least one other final choice changes.",
    "maximizer": {
      "budget": 2,
      "cohort": "mixed",
      "crowd_feedback": true,
      "reverse_arrival": false,
      "seed": 72
    },
    "maximizer_count": 1,
    "maximum_changed_final_selections": 16,
    "post_hoc": true,
    "qualifying_by_budget": {
      "1": {
        "count": 512,
        "no_target_purchase": 256,
        "qualifying": 0
      },
      "2": {
        "count": 512,
        "no_target_purchase": 512,
        "qualifying": 254
      },
      "3": {
        "count": 512,
        "no_target_purchase": 512,
        "qualifying": 240
      },
      "6": {
        "count": 512,
        "no_target_purchase": 512,
        "qualifying": 0
      }
    },
    "qualifying_cases": 494,
    "scenarios_reviewed": 2048
  },
  "status": "POST_HOC_SYNTHETIC_REPLAY_NO_MODEL_AGENTS",
  "title": "The Shop That Sold Nothing",
  "witness": {
    "budget": 2,
    "changed_final_choices": 16,
    "changed_paths": 16,
    "changed_without_promoted_store_open": [
      8,
      9,
      16,
      19,
      22
    ],
    "cohort": "mixed",
    "crowd_feedback": true,
    "hhi_opens": [
      0.3212,
      0.276
    ],
    "neutral_final_selections": [
      1,
      3,
      0,
      5,
      3,
      12
    ],
    "neutral_first_opens": [
      13,
      1,
      0,
      5,
      0,
      5
    ],
    "neutral_opens": [
      23,
      3,
      0,
      7,
      3,
      12
    ],
    "paired_shopper_traces": [
      {
        "base_opened": [
          "copper",
          "moth"
        ],
        "base_selected": "copper",
        "first_changed": false,
        "id": 1,
        "opened_delta": false,
        "selected_changed": false,
        "treat_opened": [
          "copper",
          "moth"
        ],
        "treat_selected": "copper",
        "type": "Reliability"
      },
      {
        "base_opened": [
          "moth",
          "stone"
        ],
        "base_selected": "stone",
        "first_changed": false,
        "id": 2,
        "opened_delta": true,
        "selected_changed": true,
        "treat_opened": [
          "moth",
          "gold"
        ],
        "treat_selected": "moth",
        "type": "Budget"
      },
      {
        "base_opened": [
          "moth",
          "stone"
        ],
        "base_selected": "stone",
        "first_changed": false,
        "id": 3,
        "opened_delta": false,
        "selected_changed": false,
        "treat_opened": [
          "moth",
          "stone"
        ],
        "treat_selected": "stone",
        "type": "Evidence"
      },
      {
        "base_opened": [
          "moth",
          "lantern"
        ],
        "base_selected": "lantern",
        "first_changed": false,
        "id": 4,
        "opened_delta": false,
        "selected_changed": false,
        "treat_opened": [
          "moth",
          "lantern"
        ],
        "treat_selected": "lantern",
        "type": "Wanderer"
      },
      {
        "base_opened": [
          "moth",
          "lantern"
        ],
        "base_selected": "lantern",
        "first_changed": false,
        "id": 5,
        "opened_delta": true,
        "selected_changed": true,
        "treat_opened": [
          "moth",
          "gold"
        ],
        "treat_selected": "moth",
        "type": "Crowd"
      },
      {
        "base_opened": [
          "moth",
          "duck"
        ],
        "base_selected": "duck",
        "first_changed": true,
        "id": 6,
        "opened_delta": true,
        "selected_changed": true,
        "treat_opened": [
          "gold",
          "moth"
        ],
        "treat_selected": "moth",
        "type": "Copy"
      },
      {
        "base_opened": [
          "moth",
          "copper"
        ],
        "base_selected": "copper",
        "first_changed": false,
        "id": 7,
        "opened_delta": false,
        "selected_changed": false,
        "treat_opened": [
          "moth",
          "copper"
        ],
        "treat_selected": "copper",
        "type": "Reliability"
      },
      {
        "base_opened": [
          "duck",
          "moth"
        ],
        "base_selected": "duck",
        "first_changed": true,
        "id": 8,
        "opened_delta": true,
        "selected_changed": true,
        "treat_opened": [
          "moth",
          "stone"
        ],
        "treat_selected": "stone",
        "type": "Budget"
      },
      {
        "base_opened": [
          "duck",
          "moth"
        ],
        "base_selected": "duck",
        "first_changed": true,
        "id": 9,
        "opened_delta": true,
        "selected_changed": true,
        "treat_opened": [
          "copper",
          "moth"
        ],
        "treat_selected": "copper",
        "type": "Evidence"
      },
      {
        "base_opened": [
          "lantern",
          "moth"
        ],
        "base_selected": "lantern",
        "first_changed": false,
        "id": 10,
        "opened_delta": false,
        "selected_changed": false,
        "treat_opened": [
          "lantern",
          "moth"
        ],
        "treat_selected": "lantern",
        "type": "Wanderer"
      },
      {
        "base_opened": [
          "moth",
          "duck"
        ],
        "base_selected": "duck",
        "first_changed": false,
        "id": 11,
        "opened_delta": true,
        "selected_changed": true,
        "treat_opened": [
          "moth",
          "gold"
        ],
        "treat_selected": "moth",
        "type": "Crowd"
      },
      {
        "base_opened": [
          "moth",
          "duck"
        ],
        "base_selected": "duck",
        "first_changed": true,
        "id": 12,
        "opened_delta": true,
        "selected_changed": true,
        "treat_opened": [
          "gold",
          "moth"
        ],
        "treat_selected": "moth",
        "type": "Copy"
      },
      {
        "base_opened": [
          "lantern",
          "copper"
        ],
        "base_selected": "copper",
        "first_changed": false,
        "id": 13,
        "opened_delta": false,
        "selected_changed": false,
        "treat_opened": [
          "lantern",
          "copper"
        ],
        "treat_selected": "copper",
        "type": "Reliability"
      },
      {
        "base_opened": [
          "duck",
          "moth"
        ],
        "base_selected": "duck",
        "first_changed": true,
        "id": 14,
        "opened_delta": true,
        "selected_changed": true,
        "treat_opened": [
          "moth",
          "gold"
        ],
        "treat_selected": "moth",
        "type": "Budget"
      },
      {
        "base_opened": [
          "lantern",
          "moth"
        ],
        "base_selected": "lantern",
        "first_changed": false,
        "id": 15,
        "opened_delta": false,
        "selected_changed": false,
        "treat_opened": [
          "lantern",
          "moth"
        ],
        "treat_selected": "lantern",
        "type": "Evidence"
      },
      {
        "base_opened": [
          "lantern",
          "moth"
        ],
        "base_selected": "lantern",
        "first_changed": false,
        "id": 16,
        "opened_delta": true,
        "selected_changed": true,
        "treat_opened": [
          "lantern",
          "duck"
        ],
        "treat_selected": "duck",
        "type": "Wanderer"
      },
      {
        "base_opened": [
          "moth",
          "duck"
        ],
        "base_selected": "duck",
        "first_changed": false,
        "id": 17,
        "opened_delta": true,
        "selected_changed": true,
        "treat_opened": [
          "moth",
          "gold"
        ],
        "treat_selected": "moth",
        "type": "Crowd"
      },
      {
        "base_opened": [
          "moth",
          "duck"
        ],
        "base_selected": "duck",
        "first_changed": true,
        "id": 18,
        "opened_delta": true,
        "selected_changed": true,
        "treat_opened": [
          "gold",
          "moth"
        ],
        "treat_selected": "moth",
        "type": "Copy"
      },
      {
        "base_opened": [
          "moth",
          "duck"
        ],
        "base_selected": "duck",
        "first_changed": false,
        "id": 19,
        "opened_delta": true,
        "selected_changed": true,
        "treat_opened": [
          "moth",
          "copper"
        ],
        "treat_selected": "copper",
        "type": "Reliability"
      },
      {
        "base_opened": [
          "duck",
          "moth"
        ],
        "base_selected": "duck",
        "first_changed": true,
        "id": 20,
        "opened_delta": true,
        "selected_changed": true,
        "treat_opened": [
          "gold",
          "moth"
        ],
        "treat_selected": "moth",
        "type": "Budget"
      },
      {
        "base_opened": [
          "moth",
          "stone"
        ],
        "base_selected": "stone",
        "first_changed": false,
        "id": 21,
        "opened_delta": false,
        "selected_changed": false,
        "treat_opened": [
          "moth",
          "stone"
        ],
        "treat_selected": "stone",
        "type": "Evidence"
      },
      {
        "base_opened": [
          "lantern",
          "moth"
        ],
        "base_selected": "moth",
        "first_changed": false,
        "id": 22,
        "opened_delta": true,
        "selected_changed": true,
        "treat_opened": [
          "lantern",
          "duck"
        ],
        "treat_selected": "duck",
        "type": "Wanderer"
      },
      {
        "base_opened": [
          "moth",
          "duck"
        ],
        "base_selected": "duck",
        "first_changed": false,
        "id": 23,
        "opened_delta": true,
        "selected_changed": true,
        "treat_opened": [
          "moth",
          "gold"
        ],
        "treat_selected": "moth",
        "type": "Crowd"
      },
      {
        "base_opened": [
          "duck",
          "moth"
        ],
        "base_selected": "duck",
        "first_changed": true,
        "id": 24,
        "opened_delta": true,
        "selected_changed": true,
        "treat_opened": [
          "gold",
          "moth"
        ],
        "treat_selected": "moth",
        "type": "Copy"
      }
    ],
    "promoted_final_selections": [
      11,
      5,
      0,
      3,
      3,
      2
    ],
    "promoted_first_opens": [
      12,
      2,
      5,
      5,
      0,
      0
    ],
    "promoted_opens": [
      21,
      5,
      11,
      6,
      3,
      2
    ],
    "reverse_arrival": false,
    "seed": 72,
    "store_order": [
      "Mothlight Market",
      "Copper Commons",
      "Golden Goblin Goods",
      "Lantern & Nail",
      "Stone & Star",
      "Duck Cart Co."
    ]
  }
}